The+Gamble

Reading Guide The Gamble

Thomas Ricks: The Gamble [5 weeks: Week #1 through Week #5]


 * Condensed Schedule**


 * WEEK #1**

Tuesday: Maps Cast of Characters Acronyms and Abbreviations Part One: The Old War Ends Chapter 1: Things Fall Apart (Fall 2005)

Thursday: Chapter 2: How to Fight this War (Fall 2005-Fall 2006)

WEEK #2

Tuesday: Chapter 3: Keane Takes Command (Fall 2006)

Thursday: Chapter 4: A Strategy is Born (Winter 2006-7)

WEEK #3

Tuesday: Part Two: A New War Begins Chapter 5: If You're so Smart … (Spring 2007)

Thursday: Chapter 6: Gambling on a "Shitty Hand" (Spring and Summer 2007)

WEEK #4

Tuesday: Chapter 7: Signs of Life in Baghdad (Summer 2007)

Thursday: Chapter 8: The Domestic Opposition Collapses (Summer and Fall 2007) Part Three: War Without End Chapter 9: The Twilight Zone (Winter 2007-8)

WEEK #5

Tuesday: Chapter 10: Big Wasta (Spring 2008) Chapter 11: After the Surge (Summer 2008)

Thursday: Chapter 12: Obama's War (Fall 2008) Epilogue: The Long War Afterword


 * Detailed Reading Schedule**

Maps—always look for these and refer to them as you read

Cast of Characters: Look at this list in detail. Add to it Prime Minister Malaki and Moqtada-al-Sadr.

Acronyms and Abbreviations:

Throughout this and all our readings: who are the people [where are they today]; where are the places [how have they changed today]; what are the events to remember [how have we reevaluated how we remember them]


 * Chapter 1: Things Fall Apart (Fall 2005)**

6 David Kilcullen's observation about an insurgency 8 "hidden tale to this phase of the war…begins with Keane" 11 "a kind of drift…and by default, an emphasis on transitioning to Iraqis" 13 Entire paragraph beginning "The White House was in denial" 14 Decision "to pursue almost the opposite course" 14 Entire paragraph about having no "serious strategic review" 15 Critical views about the war necessary to build a new foundation 15-23 Who are the different key people mentioned? What is your impression of General David Petraeus?


 * Chapter 2: How to Fight this War (Fall 2005-Fall 2006)**

26-27 People: David Galula, John Nagl, David Kilcullen 29 New Counterinsurgency Manual 33 "The real effect of the bombing" [Golden Dome Mosque in Samarra] 34 "the capital resembled a pure Hobbesian state" 37 selection of Malaki a starting gun for a small civil war 38 Rumsfeld versus Condi 42 Doing the right thing the wrong way 44 Short-term v. long-term result of the meeting 46 Entire paragraph "The core of the Iraqi state was rotten." 49 continued to judge actions only by input 50-52 Read these pages completely. Many important points for our discussion. 60 Overall role of Colonel McMaster. Willing to apologize for past mistakes. 61 Why did you put the Syrian border in the middle of my sheep?


 * Chapter 3: Keane Takes Command (Fall 2006)**

74 Key role of elections. 76 Entire paragraph "Even as the ghosts of Vietnam" 77 Commissar style of management. Was Rumsfeld inept. 79 Dilemma of Democrats: how to escape blame for how the war ends 79 Entire paragraph at bottom of page 82 "His worry was that the American strategy didn't protect the people" 84 Supposed lessons of past insurgencies. Need a decent indigenous govt 85 "the guys doing it don't think it's failed" 85-88 Petraeus is one tough cookie 89 Entire paragraph on Keane's advice to Rumsfeld 89 Why does a retired general "get it" and chairman of JCS doesn't 94 Bush finally acknowledges events on the ground 102 Entire paragraph "It wasn't quite put to Bush in such blunt terms" 104 Bottom of page. "Why did the American military establishment….?"


 * Chapter 4: A Strategy is Born (Winter 2006-7)**

107 Entire paragraph "If Jack Keane was the spiritual godfather" 110 Odierno's son lost an arm in Iraq 114 Bottom of page. Iraq Study Group report. What did it conclude? 115 How did Robert Gates differ from Rumsfeld? 122 Why did it take President Bush so long to change course? 124 "the new strategy was a plan for a 'long' war"


 * Part Two: A New War Begins**
 * Chapter 5: If You're so Smart … (Spring 2007)**

133 "one of the most selective clubs in the world" 140 Kilcullen's book is terrific. 147 Openness of the American Army versus the Brits 148 "show enough genuine progess"


 * Chapter 6: Gambling on a "Shitty Hand" (Spring and Summer 2007)**

149 Play the poor hand to the best of your ability. Win ugly. 149 How audacious a venture it really was 151 Kilcullen's bottom line: good team, right strategy, possible too late 152 Mansoor: odds are against it 153 Commander should stay publicly optimistic. Always? Did Bush go too long. 155 Sustainable stability 156 Entire page. AIF. Avoid Sadr City. Opening filled by militias. 157 What were the six major departures 160-165 A Foundation for Strategy [This whole section is important. Read it all. 160 Military had been slow to learn 161 Pay attention to the most basic human elements 162 Thunder Runs 163 Change of Manichean mind-set 163 Countless minor contacts 164 Respect 164 Tolerable level of violence. 165 Democracy versus stability 168 Entire paragraph "There was a new savviness" 172 Read the caption of each one of the photos. 173 Entire paragraph "Analyzing the patterns of Iraqi violence" 173 Cement barriers criticized as what the Israelis were doing 175 "an operation that was in the red" 175 Not overreact 175 Americans make promises but nothing happens 180 All the stupid insurgents are dead 187 Bottom of page. Contractors 191 Partnered relationships 195 Evidence that Guantanamo and U.S. prisons may be extremist breeding grounds 197 Which leaders in history have been shaped in prison 197 Training under Petraeus 199 Training approach used in World War II as a possible model


 * Chapter 7: Signs of Life in Baghdad (Summer 2007)**

200-201 Five major reasons for change 202-208 A Separate Peace 215 "Least bad"choices 216 Same as Saddam but this time the central govt did not like this move 217-219 Summarize the differences between Gentile and Mansoor 219 Cooperate with Iraq's tribal structure. Gertrude Bell: who is she 221 working with the tribes requires tactical patience 223 Realpolitik. Conservation of enemies. 224 Did Petraeus overstep his bounds 225 Tribal strategy versus democracy


 * Chapter 8: The Domestic Opposition Collapses (Summer and Fall 2007)**

231 Compare this section about Goldwater-Nichols with Tommy Franks view. 234 Fallon the boss, but Petraeus was Brett Favre 235 Generational shift 248 What about the "tunnel" 254 Why did America tune out the war?


 * Chapter 9: The Twilight Zone (Winter 2007-8)**

260 Key paragraph: "It was a time of assessment." 261 Knitting together at the top 262 People: Malaki. Look up material about him. 267 People: Moqtada al-Sadr. Look up material on him. 268 What do you think about using private contractors. See FRONTLINE Private Warriors video 271 Iraq political structure could not do what we wanted. Can Afghanistan? 272 Interesting Cold War perspective comparing Germany to Iraq


 * Chapter 10: Big Wasta (Spring 2008)**

283 Let's try to tap into news coverage of that very Basra battle. 284 Various signals sent by the move into Basra 290 Paragraph beginning with "Obama's bottom line" 293 Mission creep


 * Chapter 11: After the Surge (Summer 2008)**

304 Ricks has a high opinion of General Odierno Where is Odierno in 2014? 305 Who is getting out of the Army?


 * Chapter 12: Obama's War (Fall 2008)**

306-307 Read these pages carefully 312 The entire paragraph on the "gamble"


 * Epilogue: The Long War**

315 Why does Ricks think that the war in Iraq is far from over? Do you agree? 317 What might Sadr be planning. Where is he anyhow? 320-322 Iran. 323 Paragraph: "Some American advisers reported that…" 325 Read this entire page.


 * Afterword**

326-334 Read all of this